China’s 8 challenges to water resources management in the first quarter of the 21st century

www.elsevier.comrlocatergeomorph

China’s8challengestowaterresourcesmanagementinthefirst

quarterofthe21stCentury

OlliVaris),PerttiVakkilainen

LaboratoryofWaterResources,HelsinkiUniÕersityofTechnology,02015,Espoo,Finland

Abstract

NorthernChinahaslessthanhalfthewaterperpersonthantheabsolutelywater-scarceEgypt.ThissimplecomparisonhelpsustounderstandthatChinawillfacegreatwater-relatedchallengesinthecomingdecades.Itsrapidurbanization,industrialization,growingagriculturaldemand,environmentaldegradation,andpotentialclimate-relatedthreatswillbethemajordrivingforcesthatchallengethemanagementandutilizationofChina’swaterresourcesoverthedecadestocome.China’senvironmentalpressuresalreadyexceedthecarryingcapacityofthisdenselypopulatedland.ThispapersurveysChina’swaterresourcemanagementsituationanditschallengesforthedecadesahead.TheYangtzeRiverbasinisaspecialfocus.Thewatersandhydropowerofthisvastbasinareincreasinglybeingexploited—besidesthe400millionpeoplewholiveinthebasin—alsothoseothernearbypartsofChina.ParticularlyimportantisthethirstoftheNorthChinaPlain—withanother400millionpeople—seekingtheYangtze’swaterandpower.q2001ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.

Keywords:China;Food;Institutions;Urbanization;Water;Yangtze

1.Introduction

TheYangtzeRiverŽChangjiang.isoftencalledtheequatorofChina.Theriverdividesthecountrybetweenahumidsouthandadrynorth.TheNorthChinaPlainbearsmostofChina’swaterproblems:itsclimateischangingtowarmerandlessrainy;itsriversaremassivelypolluted;groundwaterisoverex-ploited;itisabsolutelywater-scarce,yetitscitiesattractnewsettlersinmillions.TheNorthwantsmorewaterfromtheYangtze,andagoodshareofitshydropoweraswell.ThecatchmentoftheYangtzealsorepresentsaverysharpsocialandeconomicgradient,asitflowsfromTibettoShanghai.

FourhundredmillionpeopleliveintheYangtzebasin.Withitsenormouspopulation,thisbasinalonewouldbethethirdmostpopulatedcountryintheworld.IthasmoreinhabitantsthantheEuropeanUnion,andalmostasmanyastheUnitedStatesandRussiatogether.Ithas1r15oftheworld’spopula-tion.Intermsofpopulationsize,theNorthChinaPlainequalstheYangtzebasin.TheYangtzehas1r3,whereastheNorthChinaPlainhasonly1r16,ofChina’swaterŽTable1..

Inthispaper,wesummarizethemajoraspectsofChina’scontemporarywaterresourcemanagementandthechallengesrelatedtotheirdevelopment,withaspecialfocusontheYangtzebasin.Eightmajorchallengesareidentified.

v)Correspondingauthor.Fax:q358-9-4513827.E-mailaddress:olli.varis@hut.fiŽO.Varis..

China’swaterresourcesarenon-uniformandscarce,

0169-555Xr01r$-seefrontmatterq2001ElsevierScienceB.V.Allrightsreserved.PII:S0169-555XŽ01.00107-6

94O.Varis,P.VakkilainenrGeomorphology41(2001)93–104

Table1

MajorindicatorsrelatedtowaterresourcesdevelopmentofChina,theYangtzebasin,andtheNorthChinaPlainŽADB,2000.

Chinatotal

PopulationSurfacearea

MeanriverrunoffArablelandGNPpercapita

1172M9.6Mkm22711km396.4Mha

870US$Ž1997.

Yangtzebasin

402MŽ34%ofChina’stotal.1.76Mkm2Ž18%.951km3Ž35%.22.9MhaŽ24%.

Shanghai391%ofnationalaverageAnhui65%Hubei86%Sichuan65%Tibet51%10.0%Ž35%.184Ž32%.

NorthChinaPlain407MŽ34%.

1.35Mkm2Ž14%.169km3Ž6%.37.9MhaŽ39%.Beijing261%Shandong115%Hebei87%Shaanxi%Ningxia69%46.5%Ž29%.178Ž31%.

Netstoragecapacityrelativetoannualrunoff

Large-scalewaterprojects

9.9%573

vvvvvvvChina’sclimatehasstrongvariationswhicharedifficulttoforecast,

Populationdensityisextreme,Urbanizationisveryrapid,

Environmentaldegradationmustbereversed,Foodself-sufficiencyrequiresvastefforts,

Economicandhumandevelopmentofferpossi-bilities,butdisparitiesarewide,Institutionalshortcomings.

Theseeightissuesconstituteadeeplyinterwovenentity,andnonationwidewaterresourcespolicycanaffordpushinganyoftheseissuesaside.2.Chinaanditswaterresources

ThepopulationofChinaapproaches1.2billionatpresent.Inspiteofstrictbirthcontrol,populationgrowthcontinuesandcouldreach1.6billionŽUN,1998.bytheyear2050.Estimatesofthepresenturbanpopulationvarybetween230and370million.Duringthenext30years,theurbanpopulationisestimatedtoincreaseby600milliontoaround1billion.TheChineseeconomyisgrowingfastbutthecountryisstillclassifiedinthelow-incomecategorywithitsGNPpercapitaapproachingUS$1000.

Thearablelandareaofabout96millionhaisdecreasing,whilethepopulationgrows.Abouthalfofthearablelandisirrigated.Thechangingstructureoftheeconomy,i.e.,industrializationandurbaniza-tion,createssituationswherelandisthefocusofintensecompetition.Primeagriculturallandisunder

pressureofbeingusedforbuildingorroadconstruc-tion.Arablelandwillbeclearedinareaswheresoilisofpoorqualityandirrigationwaterisdifficulttoobtain.

China’srenewablewaterresourcesareestimatedtobeabout2800km3ryear.Waterconsumptionisaround500km3ryearor18%ofthequantityofusablewater.Theshareforirrigationisalmost90%.ZhangandZhangŽ1995.estimatethatroughlyhalfoftheapproachablewaterisinusealready.Agricul-tureandfoodsecurityinChinaarefullylinkedwithwater.Eighty-sevenpercentofallwaterwithdrawalsgotoagriculture,whileindustrialuseconstitutes7%anddomestic6%ofallwithdrawals.Recently,Chinahasinvestedsignificantlyinwaterresourcesdevel-opment.Thereareabout85,000reservoirs,withatotalgrossstoragevolumeofaround17%oftheannualrunoff.ThemostimportantwaterprojectatpresentistheThreeGorgesDam,whichisunderconstructionontheYangtze.Itwillincreasetheriver’sstoragecapacityfrom10%to13%ofannualrunoff.Withits17GWhydropowerproduction,itwilladdtoChina’spowergenerationcapacityby7%by2007.

Inspiteofsuchmassiveprojects,notenoughwaterisavailable.Inthe1980s,onehalfofthecitiessufferedfromwatershortage.Ineverytenthcity,thesituationcanbedescribedascritical.China’sparticu-larproblemisthat81%ofitswaterresourcesareinthecountry’ssouthernpart,butthelargestpartofarableland,%,isinthenorth,wherethenation’spoliticalandeconomiccenterislocated.Onehun-

O.Varis,P.VakkilainenrGeomorphology41(2001)93–10495

dredandtwenty-sixmillionpeopleliveinNorthChinainanareaofonly426,000km2,whererenew-ablewaterquantityisonly52km3ryear.Wateruseofnorthernriversnowexceeds60%oftheannualrateofflowŽZhangandZhang,1995.In1987,thequantityofavailablewaterwasonly44.5km3ryearandconsumptionroseto87.3%ofthisquantityŽZhangetal.,1992..HuangHe’sŽYellowRiver.waterhasbeenusedsoextensivelythatnowaterflowedtotheseafor227daysin1997ŽChenandZong,1999..Priorto1991,themaximumannualnumberofdayswithasimilarsituationwas40days.GroundwaterinNorthChinaisusedataratemuchhigherthanthatwithwhichtheaquifersarefilled.Thishascausedlevelofgroundwatertodrop,insomeplaces,byasmuchas70m.InBeijing,thedrophasbeen40mandthecityhassubsidedbyover0.5mŽZhangandZhang,1995..AplanhasbeenmadetodivertwaterfromtheYangtzetothenorthtoimprovethewatersituation.Forthispur-pose,awatertransfersystemof53–71km3ofannualcapacityisbeingplanned,andsomepartshavealreadybeenconstructed.

Besideswateravailability,thequalityofwaterisalsoaproblemfortheChinese.Forinstance,only1r5ofindustrialwastewateristreatedtosomeextentbeforebeingdischargedintoawaterway.WateravailabilityisamajorconstraintonChina’sattempttoraiseitsstandardofliving.Witharising

standardoflivingandurbanization,waterconsump-tionwillincrease.Marketpricedeterminationforwater,increasinglyadoptedinChina,willseriouslythreatenirrigationwateraccessibility.Inordertosecurefoodproductionintothefuture,considerablymoreirrigatedarablelandisneeded.Acquisitionofenoughwaterforthispurposeisdifficult.

Chinaisundergoingarapidandprofoundtransi-tiontoamarket-orientedeconomy.Thetraditional,stronglycentralizedpoliticalsystemismovingto-wardsamoredecentralizedsystem.Thelackofaunifiedwateradministrationandmanagementhasbeenacknowledged.Thegapbetweenplanninganddecisionmakingisserious.Finally,theinadequacyoffinancialresourcesisanimportantconstraintinaddressingthewaterresourceschallengesŽADB,2000..Theseconstitutethestartingpointfortheconsiderationofthecountry’sinstitutionalpossibili-tiestofacethechallengestoitswaterresources.

3.Eightmajorchallenges

3.1.China’snon-uniformandscarcewaterre-sources

AcomparisonofpopulationsoneachcontinentwithavailablerunoffŽFig.1.showsEuropeandAsiatobethemostwater-scarcecontinents.China’saver-

Fig.1.Runoffpercapitabycontinentin1995,andbyregion.DatafromPosteletal.Ž1996.andSEIŽ1997..Peoplelivinginabasinwithlessthan1000m3waterpercapitaperyeartendtofacechronicwatershortage.

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ageissomewhatover2000m3waterperperson,keepingitabovethescarcitylimitof1000m3.

Thesameoutlinecanbeseenintherecentglobalwateravailabilityassessments.WetaketheStock-holmEnvironmentInstitute’sstudyŽSEI,1997.asanexample.Theanalysisoffuturewaterresourcesisbasedonasetofscenarios,amongwhichweshowheretheMiddleConventionalDevelopmentSce-nario,becauseitrepresentsthemostprobablefuturesituation.Theresultsarepresentedasasetofvulner-abilityindexvaluesforeachcountry.Thefivein-dicesused,andthemostimportantresults,areshowninFig.2,forChinaanditssurroundings.China’sresultsshowthatwitheachindexŽreliabilityofwatersupply,use-to-resourceratio,copingcapacity,andtheirdifferentcombinations.,Chinafallsinthecate-goryofwater-stressedcountries.

Thelargerandmoreheterogeneoustheregionorthecountry,themoretheaveragevaluesaremislead-ing.TheIslandofJavainIndonesiahas110millionpeopleinafairlysmallarea.TheJavanesehave1200m3waterpercapitaperyear,makingthearea

aswater-scarceastheNilebasin.Amoredramaticpressureonwaterresourcesis,however,imposedintheNorthChinaPlain,inthebasinsofHai,Luan,Huang,andHuairiversŽFig.3..Inthosebasins,thetotalannual,renewablewateravailabilityis212km3.Thisaccountsfor7.5%ofChina’stotalwaterre-sources.Thesebasinsarethehomeof407millionpeople,whichis34%ofChina’stotalpopulation.Thispopulationhas39%ofthenation’scultivatedland.ThisimpliesthatthesebasinshavelessthanhalfofthewaterpercapitainrelationtoEgyptorJava,whicharerecognizedaswater-scarceregions.Thesituationofthe120millionpeoplewhodwellintheHaiandLuanbasins,whichprovideonly1r5ofwaterpercapitaofthelevelofEgyptandJava,istheworst.

3.2.StrongclimaticÕariationswhicharedifficulttoforecast

China’smostpopulatedareasbelongtothemon-soonzone.ThiszonecoverstheregionsoutheastofthelinebetweenYunnanandHebei.Anotablepart

Fig.2.ThefivewatervulnerabilityindicesofSEIŽ1997.projectedto2025.TheMiddleConventionalDevelopmentScenarioresultsfortheAsianstudyregionsandsurroundings.Theindicesarealsodescribed.Thecategoriesare:Ž1.nowaterstress,Ž2.moderatewaterstress,Ž3.waterstress,Ž4.waterscarcity.

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Fig.3.WaterresourcesavailabilitypercapitaŽm3ryear.indifferentpartsofChinaŽafterHeilig,1999..

oftheYangtzebasin—fromYunnantoHubei—liesjustattheborderofthemonsoons,whichisanimportantreasonfortheriver’sfloodproneness.Themonsoonsareknowntobeirregular.Theirtiming,andparticularlytheirintensity,variesfromyeartoyear.Insomeyears,themonsoonsbringsignificantrainfalltothebasin,andintheothers,themonsoonsareweaker.Inadditiontothis,theYangtzebasinislocatedatthemeetingpointoftheIndianandthePacificmonsoons,whichmakestherainfallexcep-tionallydifficulttoforecast.

Themajorityofworld’sclimate-relatedcatastro-phescanbeassociatedwithmonsoons.InChina,bothfloodsanddroughtsappeartocauseenormouslossesonceeveryfewyears.TheNorthChinaPlainandthelowerYangtzebasinareparticularlyvulnera-ble,whereasoneofChina’sricebowls,Sichuan,hasaverystableclimatebeingjustoutsidethereachofthemonsoons,andisthusanimportantexceptionfromalmosttherestoftheheavilypopulatedpartsofChina.

Inthe20thCentury,mostdramaticclimaticchangeswereobservedinthemonsoonzone.ThechangesinChina’sclimatehavealsobeenclear.ThetemperatureincreasedŽFig.4.,andprecipitationde-creasedsignificantlyinthemostwater-stressedre-gions,eastofQinghaiprovinceallthewaytotheNorthChinaPlainŽZhaietal.,1999..ThisisChina’smostmarginalregionofthemonsoons.Atthesametime,Tibet,Xinjiang,andSouthernChinahadanincreaseinrainfall.

Accordingly,China’swater-stressedregionsfaceincreasingriskstowaterproblemsduetorisingtemperatureanddecreasingprecipitation.Table2summarizesmajorclimateprojectionsforChinaŽIPCC,1996,1998;Varis,1998..3.3.Extremepopulationdensity

ThepopulationofChinaishuge,yetitsgrowthiscontrolledmorerigidlythaninmostpartsoftheworld.China’sshareoftheworld’spopulationhasdecreasedfrom22.1%in1970to21.0%atpresent,andisexpectedtodecreaseto16.3%by2050.Thepopulationisexpectedtodoublein80yearsŽ1970–2050..ThecorrespondingincreaseforWestAfricais6.6times,and3.4forSouthAsia.

Chinahasalargeterritory,9.6millionkm2,butmostofitisverysparselypopulated.Ninetypercentofpeopleliveonlessthan1r3ofthelandarea,withanaveragedensityof354peopleperkm2.ThisisahigherdensitythaninJapanoranyEuropeancoun-tryexcepttheNetherlands.FiftypercentofChineseliveinareaswithadensityashighas740,andfor30%Ž346million.,thefigureis1024.Incompari-son,Bangladeshhas935,theislandofJavahas870,andtheNetherlandshas457inhabitantsperkm2ŽWorldBank,1999..

Theconcentrationofpeopleinthenarrowcoastalzone,intheYangtzevalley,andparticularlyinwaterscarceandverydenselypopulatedNorthChinaPlain,isveryimportantasadriverofwaterresourcedevelopment.

3.4.Veryrapidurbanization

InChina,thelevelofurbanizationwas22%in1975,iscurrentlyrecordedat37%,andexpectedtoreach55%in2025.TheChineseurbanpopulationisexpectedtoincreasefivetimesduringthis50-yearperiod.Alongwithurbanization,thepopulationden-sityisincreasing,particularlyinthealreadywater-scarceanddenselypopulatedbasinsŽFig.5..

China’surbanareasproduced35.1km3ofwastewaterin1997.Thisisexpectedtogrowto650km3by2010,and960km3by2030.Thetreatmentlevelwas11%in1997,anditistargetedtogrowto40%in2010ŽOyangandWang,2000..Thediffi-cultyinmeetingthistargetbecomesclearwhen

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Fig.4.NorthChinaPlainandNortheasternChinagetwarmer,whereasTibetandSoutheasternChinacooldown.Thicksolidlineisannualaveragetemperature,thinsolidlineismeanannualmaximumtemperatureanddottedlineismeanannualminimumtemperature.Thedatacoverstheperiod1955–1997ŽShenandVaris,2001..

comparedwiththerequiredtreatmentcapacityinGermanyŽVanRiesen,1999..In1996,Germanytreated22%morewastewatersŽincubicmeters.thanChina.Inordertoreachthetargetof40%by2010,Chinahastobuild1r3ofGerman’spresentcapacityeachyear.

3.5.RequiredreÕersalofenÕironmentaldegradationChinaisextremelyshortofnaturalresources,givenitsdensepopulation.AnanalysisoftheChineseAcademyofSciencesnotedthatAChina’senvironmentalpressuresalreadyexceedthecritical

Table2

Futureprojectionsfortemperature,precipitation,andriverrunoffforChina.CompiledfromIPCCŽ1996,1998.byVarisŽ1998.TemperatureHighuncertainty

Smallincreasesuggested,decreaseisalsopossible.Sensitivityofcoastalmonsoonareassmallerthandrycontinentalareas

PrecipitationVeryhighuncertainty

SummerrainswillincreasetowardsSandwinterrainstowardsN.Substantialdecreasethroughoutisalsopossiblebutlesslikely

Runoff

Extremeuncertainty

NChina:verysensitivetoanychange.MorelikelytodecreasethanincreaseŽexceptManchuria..

Specialattentiontosummerflows.SChina:increasesratherthandecreases

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Fig.5.Migrationpattern:China’spopulationconcentratespartlyonwater-scarceareasŽdata:StateStatisticalBureau,compiledbyHeilig,1999..

equilibriumlimitsofmanyecosystemsBŽChineseAcademyofSciences,1992;NiuandHarris,1996..Reversingenvironmentaldegradationisanexpensiveexercise.TheWorldBankŽ1977.estimatedthat1–2%ofGDPwillberequiredtoaddresswaterandairpollution.Thisisalargefigure,butitmustbeseenagainsttheeconomiclossesduetopollution,whichisequalto8%ofGDP.

AlongwithsomepartsofformerUSSR,ChinatoppedtheworldintermsofemissionsperproducedGNPfordecades.Veryrecently,though,ithasmaderapidprogress.Itsresourceuseisimprovinginmanyrespects,butthereisstillmuchtoaccomplish.Forinstance,China’saverageenergyconsumptionre-latedtoGDPis1.8timesthatofIndiaandfivetimestheconsumptionofJapan.China’semissionscon-tinuetogrowrapidly.Yet,apparently,theeconomygrowsmuchfasterthanemissions.ChinaisexpectedtodoubleagainitsGDPinthenext10–15years.Thiscouldhappenwithvirtuallynoincreaseinenergyconsumptionorrelatedemissions,ifeffi-ciencygrowthandtechnologicalprogressaresuc-cessfulŽNiuandHarris,1996..Chinahasgonealongwaytohalveitsemissionsperproducedwealth,butitstillmusthalveitsemissionsonceortwicetoreachtheleveloftheotherindustrializingcountries.

TheconsequencesofhighemissionsandhighpopulationdensityareclearinChina’swater,airandland.Thenitrateandammoniumconcentrationsdou-bledintheHuangHeandtheYangtzeriversinthe1980sŽZhangetal.,1995..Frequent,severeeutroph-icationproblemscanbeobservedinallmajorChi-neseriversystems.Surfacewaterqualityproblemsaremostoppressiveinthewater-scarcepartsofChinaŽFig.6..Thistendencyisenhancedbytherapidlydeterioratinggroundwatersituation—bothintermsofqualityandquantity—intheNorthChinaPlainŽADB,2000..

LanddegradationisaseriousprobleminChinaŽFig.7..Inthe1950s,thelandareasusceptibletoerosionwas16%ofthecountry’ssurfacearea,whereasin1997,itwasestimatedtobe38%ŽADB,2000..IntheYangtzebasin,theareafromwhichsevereerosionoccurshasdoubledinthelast15yearsŽNiuandHarris,1996..TheYangtze’sannualsedimentloadatYichangisnowabout0.5billiontons.WatererosionisbyfarthemostproblematicissueinthehumidpartsofChina,suchastheYangtzebasin.Bothchemicalandphysicaldegrada-tionaregrowing,though.China’sparticulargeomor-phologicalconditions—vastareasverypronetoero-sion—donotmakeabatementpolicieseasy.

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Fig.6.WaterqualityinmajorriverbasinsofChinain1996ŽafterShenandDafoe,1998..TheChinesesurfacewaterqualityclassificationwasusedŽclasses1and2:good,class3:moderate,andclasses4and5:poor..

TheimpactofenvironmentaldeteriorationonChina’svulnerabilitytonaturaldisastersisalsovisi-ble.Inthepast2000years,thenumberofmajorfloodsinChinahasbeen1600,whilemajordroughtshaveoccurredabout1300times.ThefrequencyofnaturaldisastersinChinahasbeensteadilygrowingoverthepast1500yearsŽFig.8..ThiscanbeattributedtothedegradationoftheenvironmentinChinaoverthatperiodŽNiuandHarris,1996..TheworstfamineeverrecordedonthisplanetoccurredinChinain1876—79,killing9to13millionpeopleŽFAO,1995..3.6.Foodsecurity

China’sagriculturecontinuestofacegreatchal-lenges,whicharedeeplywater-bound.Chinahasmadeaveryrapidprogressinfoodproduction,andisnowprovidingitscitizensonaverage)2600caloriesperday.Thishashappenedalmosttotally

Fig.7.SoildegradationinChina,percentoftotallandarea,byregionŽLyndenandOldeman,1997..

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101

Fig.8.China’snaturaldisasterfrequency.AveragenumberofnaturaldisastersperyearduringdifferentdynastiesandhistoricalperiodsinChinaafter581AD.AfterNiuandHarrisŽ1996..

throughintensifyingfarmingpractices.Irrigationandparticularlyfertilizationarebooming,causingcolos-salchangesinthewaterenvironment.China’sshareofglobalfertilizerusehasrisenfrom6%to24%inthepastthreedecades.Furtherintensificationisun-avoidable,sincethecountry’sarableareaisexpectedtodecreasebyatleast10%by2030ŽNiuandHarris,1996..WaterhasalreadybecomescarceinlargepartsofChina,andintensificationofagriculturewillrequiremuchmorecarefulwatermanagementthanbefore.

IIASAhasrecentlyanalyzedChina’sfuturepossi-bilitiestofeeditspeopleŽHeilig,1999..Thatstudyconcludesthatthefollowing10requirementsmustbemettomaintainChina’snext-to-completeself-sufficiencyinagriculturalproduction:

vChinacanŽandshould.greatlyimprovewateruseefficiencyinagriculture.

vAtrans-basinwaterdiversionisnecessarytobettersupplyChina’shighpopulationintheNorthChinaPlain.

vBottlenecksintransportationinfrastructure,technology,andlogisticshavetoberemoved.vLargerfarmsizesshouldbepromotedbygrad-ualprivatizationofthearableland.

vChinawouldbenefitfromamoderateincreaseofŽfeed.grainimports.

vFloodpreventionmeasuresmustbeintensified.

vResearchinbiotechnologyshouldbefurthersupported.

vSomestateinterventioninthegrainsectorisnecessarytoguaranteeasufficientgrainsupply.vFamilyplanningcanpreventalargerthanex-pectedgrowthinfooddemand.

vChina’sagriculturemightbenefitfromclimatechange.

Someotheranalystshavereachedverydifferentconclusions.TheUSMinistryofAgriculturefore-seestheneedforimporttobe32milliontonsin2005.TheChineseAcademyofScience’sestimationforimportis35milliontonsin2010and45milliontonsin2020ŽCrookandColby,1996..AccordingtoBrownandHalweilŽ1998.,asmuchas200milliontonswillbeneededtobeimportedin2030.Thescaleofthesefiguresbecomesevidentwhenwefindoutthatthenetamountofgrainboughtbydevelop-ingcountriesattheturnofthedecadewasabout80milliontonsinall.

3.7.DisparitiesineconomyandhumandeÕelopmentTheregionalincomedifferencesaresignificantandgrowing.China’scoastalmega-citiesandthespecialeconomiczonesprosper,whilethelarge,landlockedagriculture-dominatedprovinceslosetheireconomicshare.Shanghai’sGNPpercapitaisfourtimesthenationalaverageŽHongKongexcluded.,whereasmostofthelandlockedprovincescanpro-videtheirdwellerswithonly1r10to1r5ofShang-hai’sGNP.

IntheUNDPŽ1999.HumanDevelopmentrank-ing,whichtakesintoaccountwealth,education,andpublichealth,China’srankis98amongthe174countriesevaluated.China’sHDIgrowthhasbeenwellabovetheworldaverage.

AkderŽ1994.analyzedtheChinesehumandevel-opmentbyprovince.Shanghai—themostadvancedprovince—wouldrankinthetopclassoftheworldcountries,evenaboveHongKong.Tibethadthelowestranking,fallingbelowallthe174countries.ThelastcountriesonthislistarefromWestAfrica:Mali,BurkinaFaso,Niger,andSierraLeone.ThesecondChineseprovincefromthebottomwasQing-hai,rankingslightlybetterthantheabove-mentionedcountries.Yunnancamenext.Itwouldrank1,

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closetoGuinea-Bissau,ChadandGambia.TherangeofChineseprovincesisbroaderthanthatoftheworld’snations.AlongtheYangtze,fromTibet,QinghaiandYunnandowntoShanghai,thiswholerangeisrepresented.Thisfactisamongthemostimportantstartingpointsofanyaspectofenviron-mentallyandsociallysustainablewaterresourcesdevelopmentinthebasin.3.8.Institutionalmismatches

Onesuchaspectistheinstitutionalset-upofthewatersector.Thelackofunifiedwateradministra-tionandmanagementposesaseriousprobleminfacingthecontemporarywaterchallenges.Theinsti-tutionalarrangementisoverlycomplex,andpronetorivalriesandinefficiencies.Thecountryismovingfromacentralizedtoamoredecentralizedsystem,butwaterinstitutionshavedifficultiesinkeepingupwiththesereforms.Theincreasedindependenceofprovincialaction—bearinginmindtheescalatinggapsbetweendifferentregions,theambitiontostrengthenthethusfarweakriverbasinauthoritiesofthesixmajorriversincludingtheYangtze,andthestrongtraditionofacentralizedsystem—isaccentu-atingdifficultiesinpolicycoordinationandactionŽADB,2000..

PlanninghasenjoyedahighpriorityinChinesewaterpolicies.Sophisticatedplansexist,yetahiatusremainsbetweenplanninganddecision-making.Thisispartlyduetofinancialshortcomings,butinstitu-tionalproblemsaddressedabovearealsoresponsi-ble.

4.Conclusions

Chinanowhasarapidlygrowingeconomy,plusmanyotherimperativesformakingconsciousdevel-opmentchoices.China’sregionaldifferencesineco-nomicandhumandevelopmentarelarge.Thecoastalmega-citiesandspecialeconomiczonesprogresswitharespectablerate,whereasthelandlockedprovinces,particularlytheirruralareas,havelessgrowth.Thegrowingsub-economiesshoulddrivethewholecountry,bringinguptheruralareas.Theoppositescenariowouldbethattheemergingareasdraintherestofthecountryfromwealthandhumanresources.Chinaisrapidlyenteringthegroupofkeyactorsintheglobalscene—intermsofeconomyandad-verseeffectssuchaspollutionandenvironmentaldegradation.China’seconomicprogressexceedsnowthegrowthofemissions.Still,theemissionrateperproducedunitofwealthneedstobeimprovedcon-siderably.Forinstance,China’sCOstillmanifoldin2emissions,asrelatedtoGNP,arecomparisontothesituationinhigh-incomecountries,althoughthegrowthofefficiencyhasbeenfastfromthemid-1990s.Withrespecttowater,however,theoutlookisdifficult,especiallyregardingthewaterproblemsofNorthChina.ThisregionalreadyhaslessthanhalfofthewaterpercapitaincomparisontoEgyptŽSmil,1992;Zhangetal.,1992..

Tosumup,thepictureofChina’swaterresourcesispolarizedinanumberofrespects.TheYangtzeliesinmanywaysatthemidstofthefollowingpolarities.

Ž1.TheNorthChinaPlainisextremelyshortofwater,andthewateravailabilityisatriskofdimin-ishingfurther,whilethesouthisrichwithwater.Waterqualitydegradationis,inaddition,afarmoresevereprobleminthenorththaninthesouth.

Yangtze’swaterwillbeusedasapartialsolutiontothewaterproblemsoftheNorthChinaPlain,buttheplannedwatertransfersarebutatinydropintheirsustainablesolution.Therealactionsmustbeintheincreaseofwateruseefficiencyandtheabate-mentofenvironmentaldegradationintheNorthChinaPlain.

Ž2.Wateruseefficiencycanandmustbeim-provedinallpartsofthecountry.China’sirrigationsystemsareextensive,butconsumetoomuchwater.Inthemonsoonclimate,storageandwatertransfersystemsareofvitalimportance,yetsomeofthepresent,large-scaleprojectsevokeplentyofcriticismandconcern.China’sdisastrousfloodsarestillaseriousproblemeveryfewyears.

Yangtze’sfloodsensitivityhasbeenChina’smen-aceovermillennia,andthebenefitsduetocompletedandplannedhydraulicconstructionsareeatenuptoalargepartbythesiltationofthenaturalandman-madereservoirsandotherfactorsthatshrinkstoragevol-umeinthebasin,aswellasintensifyinglanduseinthefloodplains.

Ž3.TheChinesearebetteroffintermsofwealthandhumandevelopment,yetthemostdeveloped

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regions,particularlythecoastalmega-cities,aregrowingataratethatcausesconcernforthegrowthofsocioeconomic,partlyregional,gapswithinthecountry.

TheYangtzebasinhashugedifferencesindevel-opmentinitsdifferentparts.TheestuarywiththeCityofShanghairepresentshighhumanandeco-nomicdevelopment,whilethelandlockedprovinces,particularlyGuizhou,Yunnan,QuinghaiandTibet,belongtothepoorestregionsoftheworld.Thispolarityingrowthisnotagoodsign.

Ž4.Populationcontroliswelladvanced,althoughpopulationdensityisveryhighandgrowingincer-tainregions,amongwhichthemostproblematicintermsofwateristheNorthChinaPlain.

TheYangtzebasin,withits400millionpeople,hasapronouncedpopulationproblem.Particularly,theSichuanandChongqingprovincesandtherivervalleyfromYichangtoShanghaiareextremelycrowded.

Ž5.Urbanizationhasbeenheavilycontrolledfordecades,butrecenttimeshavewitnessedrelaxationinthisrespect.Morestrictcontroloftheexcessiverateofurbanizationwouldallowmoretimeforadaptation,butsuchpoliciesappearverydifficultandunappealinginthepresentconditions.

ThemigrationfromtheruralareastothefeweconomiccoresofthebasinsuchasShanghai,Nan-jing,Wuhan,andChongqingismassive,andloadstheurbanregionswithsocialandenvironmentalproblemsandinstabilities.

Ž6.TheAfirstpollute—thencleanBdoctrineisoftenusedtodescribeChina’senvironmentalpolicy.Itisassumedtoenhanceeconomicdevelopmentandattractforeigninvestment.Thetermmightalreadybeanexaggerationandpartlyobsolete.China’semis-sionsarehugeincomparisontoproducedwealth.Highpollutionlevelsareaseriousconcerninadenselypopulatedcountry,althoughitseemsthatcertainimprovementsinpollutionabatementtrendsarealreadyinplace.

TheYangtzebasinhasseriousenvironmentalproblems,mostnotablyintermsofsoildegradationanderosion,urbanairpollution,andwaterqualityissues.

Ž7.China’sfoodsecurityhasreachedastablelevel,andthecountrycanfeeditsvastpopulationwell.However,aconcernisjustifiedaboutthesus-

tainabilityoftheagriculture—landdegradationisrapid—andagrochemicalsareusedinveryhighamounts.Mostwatershedssufferfromtheadverseimpactsoferosion,aswellasleachingofnutrientsandpollutants.Eighty-sevenpercentofChina’swa-terwithdrawalsgotoagriculture.Ontheotherendoftheproductionchain,water,whichisscarce,receivesincreasingamountsofpollutants,nutrients,anderodedsoil.

TheYangtzebasinhassomeofthemostproduc-tiveandintensivelyexploitedagriculturalareasoftheworld,particularlyintheSichuanprovinceandintheplainseastofYichang.Theriverhasenoughwater,yetrapiddeteriorationofenvironmentmustbetakenseriously.YangtzewaterwillbeincreasinglyusedtonourishtheNorthChinaPlainaswell.Therefore,theYangtzeisatthecenterofthefoodsecurityissueofChina.

Ž8.Chinadecentralizesandstreamlinesitsadmin-istrationsystem.Regionalizationishighontheagenda,especiallyinvolvingtheriverbasinagencies.Theirinterplayis,however,severelyhandicappedbyrivalriesandmismatcheswiththestrongcentralgov-ernment.

Duetohistoricalreasons,theYangtzebasinin-cludesfactorsthatmaketheintegratedwaterre-sourcesmanagementinthebasindifficult.Themanyethnicdifferences,hugeeconomicgradients,Shang-hai’sparticularstatus,andthelocationofthebasinoutsidethepowercenterofthecountryarefactorsthathampertheconsiderationofthebasinasoneunity.

Acknowledgements

ThestudyisfundedbytheAcademyofFinlandandtheMinistryofAgricultureandForestryofFinland.TheinvaluablematerialprovidedbyDajunShenisgreatlyappreciated,aswellasthecommentsbyAvijitGupta,AndrewG.WarneandZhongyuanChen.References

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